[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 53W-58W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
52W-55W. THE GFS MODEL HAS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
WAVE SPREADING OVER GUYANA...E VENEZUELA AND THE S WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON WED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N25W 2N31W 1N37W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N33W TO 8N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE OCEAN. AS OF
0900 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 32N62W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A VERY FINE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINE DEFINES THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF WITH NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND SETTLING INTO THE E GULF PROVIDING A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W KEEPING MAINLY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY 15-20 KT SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED W OF 90W
AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W TEXAS WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING RUNS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS EVIDENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE E ATLC NEAR 29N36W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND A PREVAILING E-SE SURFACE WIND
REGIME ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
REGION. WITH CURRENT MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS GUYANA AND
E VENEZUELA TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO AND THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEAR 36N69W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N62W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS
ELEUTHERA BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.
BEHIND FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE W ATLC WATERS ON WED. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. THIS IS
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY PATCHES OF SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 15N. A
BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 10N. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS AIDING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 32W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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