[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS
ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ BUT IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE BETWEEN 5N-7N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N7W 3N14W 2N34W THEN ALONG 2N38W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 3E-4W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 2W-6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE 1N8W TO ITCZ AXIS NEAR
4N10W TO 8N13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN PLATEAU WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE SE US. THIS FRONT
WILL NOT ENTER THE GULF WATERS AND THEREFORE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF ON
SUN. A FEW SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF
BUT ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 78W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E
OF 78W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE S BAHAMAS THROUGH JAMAICA TO
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS COVERED BY
A BOARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST
OF NE BRAZIL. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE S
AND E CARIBBEAN SEA. FAIRLY STRONG TRADEWINDS COVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
A WEAK E PACIFIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WITH CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA COAST IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER TO THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BOARD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM E FLORIDA TO
65W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-63W.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 40W NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW
TO 25N51W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR
29N59W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 61W.
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ALONG 30W IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC TO 20N E OF 20W.
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING SW FROM A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

$$
HUFFMAN




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