[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N19W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W TO 3S44W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N2W ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO NEAR
1S1W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-10W AND FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 13W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 5.5N FROM 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US. THIS FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE GULF WATERS AND THEREFORE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS OF YET. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF
ON SUN. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF BUT IS
NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE THE SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR OVER THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE S AND
E CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-70W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N46W
EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N54W 27N46W TO
BEYOND 32N42W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 24N E OF
30W. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W AND A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE NE
ATLC NEAR 22N39W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THE
AFRICAN DUST THAT COVERED THE TROPICAL ATLC IS THINNING AS IT
SPREADS WESTWARD WITH LESS DENSE DUST LAYERED STILL MOVING OFF
THE COAST AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE




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