[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN N BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N25W TO 6N30W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N4W 3N11W 6N21W 5N31W 3N43W 3N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-14W AND FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE GULF WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE SE US AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER
THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM CURRENTLY JUST E
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COASTS
BUT NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. A SMALL AREA
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OFF THE N COAST OF W CUBA S OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM 80W-82W. OTHERWISE THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE
A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA
TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W
AND COSTA RICA. A SMALL AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30/45
NM RADIUS OF 18.5N79.5W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 50W AND
FLORIDA COAST DIPPING S INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING
SW TO 22N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N61W TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATE BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N33W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT APPEARS TO BE LESS DENSE
ALONG THE COAST AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE





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