[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 9N ALONG 21W/22W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ILL-DEFINED FLOW AROUND WHAT IS SUPPOSED
TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE. NO RELATED PRECIPITATION.
THE WAVE MAY BE DROPPED AT THE NEXT ANALYSIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W...TO 3N14W 4N20W 4N24W 2N29W
3N41W 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
1N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE
COASTS FROM 6N TO 7N...;FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...AND
FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CONTINUES
TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N IN MEXICO AND TEXAS BETWEEN
THE COAST AND 100W. BROKEN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N90W 27N86W 30N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N68W...CONTINUING TO 18N72W 13N73W. THE COLD FRONT FROM
24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
21N50W TO 17N60W AND 16N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 15N68W 17N62W 19N58W BEYOND 20N57W. OTHER POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W
AND 89W IN EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS...WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS OF 15N90W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES A MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING
HELPED BY THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ON TOP OF THE SAME AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS BEING
SUPPRESSED COMPARATIVELY-SPEAKING BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 23N64W TO 20N68W...CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 18N72W AND 13N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 28N40W 21N50W TO 17N60W AND 16N65W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N68W 19N58W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND 19N58W 24N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N71W....NORTHWEST OF THE 32N36W 21N50W
SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N36W
21N50W TROUGH...FROM 14N50W TO 21N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N23W TO 32N19W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 33N26W 26N28W 17N28W RIDGE.

$$
MT


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