[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N18W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
2W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE
ATLC WELL ENE OF BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE N
GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN E/W COMPONENT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND GIVING THE CARIBBEAN W OF
80W NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKER TRADE WINDS
OVER THE NW PORTION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W FROM 16N
TO THE ABC ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES COVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
17N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS W INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W
EXTENDING W ALONG 29N51W TO 28N64W WHERE IT BEGINS TO PULL N AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO FAR E CUBA.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL JUST E OF
TRINIDAD NE ALONG 21N54W TO 32N50W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 50W-66W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1029 MB
HIGH WELL ENE OF BERMUDA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N25W SSW INTO THE TROPICS TO
10N40W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC
E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AS FAR
N AS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE FRONT
ACTUALLY BISECTING IT AND A 1029 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION
NEAR 33N33W.

$$
WALLACE



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