[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N12W 1N19W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 2S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-34W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE
THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA WITH A 1030 MB
HIGH. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING MUCH OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW BANKING
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO AND TEXAS BUT NOT
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATE THE GULF. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 84W-90W. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF JAMAICA TO FAR
NE HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W ALONG 19N78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
15N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S WINDWARD
ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION USHERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF A LINE FROM ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT VINCENT
ISLANDS ALONG 15N66W TO SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 24N66W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN MOST ISLANDS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
25N63W TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC IS
W OF FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 31N79W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THE UPPER HIGH IN THE S WINDWARD TO BEYOND
32N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N24W SSW INTO THE
TROPICS TO 12N40W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE
FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER NW
AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION AND SW
OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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