[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N20W 1N33W 4N50W INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 59W ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACCORDING TO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. CLEAR SKIES ARE SOUTHEAST OF
30N85W 27N90W 27N98W. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA
FROM 27N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N90W TO 26N100W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 27N79W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND 90W...NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ALL THIS FLOW IS ON TOP OF DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE
FROM 15N60W TO SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA...SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W...SOUTHWEST OF 12N82W 9N80W...NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
77W AND 84W...AND FROM WESTERN CUBA STRETCHING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
27N81W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 25N80W 27N67W BEYOND 32N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W
20N30W 11N41W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N23W...AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM THE 1013 MB
LOW CENTER TO 28N20W 25N18W 20N20W 17N28W. THE FRONT IS MARKED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 28N20W 17N28W.

$$
MT





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