[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231117 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

COR IN ORDER TO INCLUDE A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 8N10W TO 3N20W
2N28W 3N43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS
ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN 67W AND A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 27N83W LOW CENTER TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N86W
27N80W...WIDENING TO BE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W
BEYOND 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN/
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. PART OF THE BAND OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS HAS PASSED THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THEN WEAKENED WITH TIME.
THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THAT ARE NORTH
OF 14N60W 17N70W 16N80W 13N83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM ON NORTH
OF 24N80W 27N70W BEYOND 31N64W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W....UNDER
A DRY/SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 30N53W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N27W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
WHAT REMAINS OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN IN THE AREA
FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER STILL SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N27W TO 30N22W
25N23W 19N31W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 20W AND
27W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N30W 23N23W 26N20W 30N22W.

$$
MT



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