[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N16W 2N21W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N W OF 40W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W-40W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF COAST
STATES JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE W OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER S LOUISIANA TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S.
INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST MOVING INTO THE NW GULF. A ILL-DEFINED 1013 MB LOW IS IN
THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW TO
THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E FROM THE 1013 MB LOW ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND
FORT MYERS THEN DIPS S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC S OF
WEST PALM BEACH. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 24N-29N E OF 87W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER GUYANA
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W
ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 78W. THE COLD
FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ON SUN AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME
AREA BUT IS BISECTED BY A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N43W ALONG 26N70W WHICH THEN CONTINUES AS A WARM
FRONT THAT CROSSES FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST PUSHES SE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR
25N53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 33N32W ESE TO 28N21W. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW N OF THE REGION BECOMING COLD NEAR
31N27W EXTENDING ALONG 25N26W TO 20N33W THEN DISSIPATING TO
16N41W. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THUS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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