[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 212359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
28W THEN ALONG 2S35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 400 NM S
OF THE AXIS  BETWEEN 17W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
NEAR 22N89W. AS OF 21Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 24N87W TO 24N86W WHERE IS CONNECTS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CONTINUES ALONG 24N84W THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS OF
FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES NW FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 23N91W TO
NEAR 26N93W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE
TRAVELING NE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COVER THE GULF E OF 92W AND S
OF 27N. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS RESULTING IN NE TO
E WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...A TROUGH HAS
MOVED OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE GULF.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. LOW-TOPPED STRATOCUMULUS AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N78W IS PROVIDING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE W ATLC.A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG
29N62W TO 26N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP TO 70 NM BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A WEAK SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W AND WILL
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FURTHER EAST...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
36N41W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHES A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 30N31W WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SSE TO NEAR 24N29W AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW
ALONG 23N34W THEN SW TO NEAR 17N43W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 26W-31W. THE
EXTREME EASTERN ATLC IS COVERED BY A NARROW SFC RIDGE.
ALOFT...SWLY FLOW OVER IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
WADDINGTON




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