[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 39W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO SOUTHERN ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 24N80W
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA....TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 23N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND WESTERN HONDURAS...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO
18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO WESTERN CUBA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WEST OF 50W IS COURTESY OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N64W.
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N64W TO HAITI...INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N81W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE LINE THROUGH 15N60W TO 14N67W 13N74W. THIS PHENOMENON IS THE
RESULT OF THE 32N60W 15N81W RIDGE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD.
THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS GENERALLY
INDICATES FOR THE AREAS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT TO 25 KTS...EXCEPT
TO 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND SEAS FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 54W...
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 22N40W 20N43W...DISSIPATING FROM 20N43W
TO 15N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA...AND PASSES THROUGH 16N46W 22N30W BEYOND 25N20W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

$$
MT



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