[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W TO 4S40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 6S-2S BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDS
S TO A 996 MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W.  A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES S FROM THE LOW TO THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR 18N102W.  A
1033 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 37N73W.
THE RESULTING TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A GALE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W.  SELY
WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  OUTSIDE OF THE GALE
AREA WINDS IN THE GULF ARE MOSTLY GREATER THAN 20 KT.  THE NW
GULF ALSO HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO
TO BE OVER THE W GULF FROM LOUISIANA TO THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER STRONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 70W.  MODERATE TRADES
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY S OF 17N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR
13N72W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS GUADELOUPE IN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N45W AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 25N30W 12N48W.  A PLUME AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC E OF 35W AND S OF 16N.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W.  A TROUGH
IS N OF 20N E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE QUICKLY E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N39W TO 18N52W TO GUADELOUPE.

$$
FORMOSA




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