[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W TO 3S44W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 40W-46W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DRAGGING AN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY N THE NW GULF. ALL OF THE
ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS N OF THE REGION MOVING
INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LEAVING THE GULF RATHER CLEAR
TONIGHT. MODERATE S TO SW SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW
CLOUDS OVER NE FLORIDA FROM PENSACOLA TO JUST S OF TAMPA. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE GULF LATE TODAY WITH THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE
AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA. EVEN
THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR SUPPRESSED TONIGHT
WITH ONLY ONE AREA HAVING SOME SIGNIFICANCE W OF JAMAICA FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER FLOW. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE GULF ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE W ATLC WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO. THESE STORMS ARE N OF 31N W OF 75W WITH A NARROW BAND
OVER SE GEORGIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING THESE
STORMS WHICH IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO BEYOND 32N49W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N FROM 30W-45W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N31W TO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 27N37W
CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N46W THEN NW TO 31N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF THE LOW. BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W AND BRIDGING THE FRONT/TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC. A BENIGN SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC BUT IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE




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