[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
30W THEN ALONG 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-22W...
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 36W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W.  10-15
KT SELY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W MOVING E.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 78W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF
24N AND W OF 90W.   CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REST OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY E WITH
CONVECTION TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A 130 KT
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF...N FLORIDA...AND W
ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA...THE ABC
ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO BELIZE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N73W 22N80W.  A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N70W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
E FROM THE WARM FRONT ALONG 28N60W 28N54W 32N46W.  A 1020 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 26N30W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A NARROW TROUGH IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 15W-40W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES TO MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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