[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N13W 1N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 5S38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN...WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N9W 8N14W...FROM 3N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-21W...AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 89W. DEEP
LAYERED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE SE U.S. AND THE GULF N OF 24N E
OF 88W WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT NOW OUT OF THE GULF.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS THE NE
GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING BANKED ALONG THE SE
MOUNTAINS OF THE MEXICO AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W
OF 93W DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. WEAK
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WITHIN 200 NM OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W INCLUDING
JAMAICA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI WITH SOME
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
U.S. IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING OVER BERMUDA TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W INTO CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
A LINE FROM 26N75W TO 29N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INCLUDES THE
CARIBBEAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W TO 28N43W WHERE IT WEAKENS TO
28N51W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY N OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS SPLIT BY THE FRONT ABOVE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
32N44W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N49W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 25N35W TO 18N51W BUT DUE TO THE
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE
AREA THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE



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