[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AT 26W THEN ALONG 2S30W 4S40W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER LIBERIA...N BRAZIL AND SURINAME.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
NEAR EQ34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE W ATLC
THU HELPING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO WHERE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS COVER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N93W GIVING THE AREA LIGHT NELY WINDS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS THE
N GULF WATERS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER AREA AND
NW MEXICO IS REACHING THE FAR W GULF AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. A
JETSTREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM NE
MEXICO TO CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT BECOMES
STRONGER. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE
REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COURTESY OF A WEAK HIGH PRES
LOCATED N OF AREA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN WEST
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAINLY N
OF 30N. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
29N78W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 30N76W...THEN CONTINUES NEWD AS A
COLD FRONT TO A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
31N42W 28N52W 30N62W. WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA
EAST OF 70W WITH A COUPLE OF 1020 MB HIGHS NEAR 25N48W AND
30N50W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR. AS A RESULT...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 35W ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL.
AN UPPER HIGH PERSISTS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS EXTENDING A RIDGE ALONG WESTERN AFRICA.

$$
GR







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net