[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N16W THEN EXTENDING W ALONG
THE EQUATOR TO 40W TO 2S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 31N86W 21N88W AT 21Z. LIGHTNING DATA IS AGAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT DEPICTING A SWATH OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. TSTM ACTIVITY IS MORE SPREAD OUT N
OF 27N COVERING MUCH OF N FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC WATERS...DUE
TO A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SOME OF THE TSTMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. BRISK S TO SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY IN THE SQUALLY WEATHER. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN BY GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS...CAUSING
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. THE AIR IS SO COLD THAT SNOW IS
FALLING OVER N PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING THE COOL
AIRMASS TO PENETRATE E. QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE MID TO UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR E PORTION WHERE UPPER TROUGHING IS INDUCED BY A LARGE CUT
OFF LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N38W.
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS
CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES...WHICH ARE MOST
ORGANIZED IN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS VEERING TO THE S IN THE NW
CARIB AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FAIRLY
POTENT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG AND OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. N OF 29N W OF 79W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER LIES IN THE
WARM SECTOR...STRONG SLY WINDS AT THE SFC...OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE SE STATES WITH SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT FROM A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. REFER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THE ROUGH WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE OTHER
AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
1005 MB LOW NEAR 29N38W. THIS ONCE OCCLUDED SYSTEM HAS LOST MUCH
OF ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH ONLY A TROUGH ANALYZED SWD FROM
THE LOW TO 23N41W. CONVECTION IS SCATTERED IN NATURE WITHIN 420
NM N AND NE OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING
TO THE W OF THE LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
37N52W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS CUT OFF
SYSTEM DRIFTING TO THE SW AND WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND.

MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STACKED RIDGE PROVIDING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. WIDESPREAD STRONG
SWLY UPPER FLOW LIES ABOVE THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL E ATLC
BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE AND AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N18W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ENHANCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE
ITCZ W OF 43W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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