[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
35W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N86W THEN A WARM
FRONT TO 23N89W. DOPPLER RADAR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM SE
OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS
ANALYZED NEAR 28N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS N OF
THE FRONT FROM 23N-28N. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM FROM ACROSS N
CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 27N90W THEN ACROSS
NW FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO THE NE PORTION CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS WELL IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER
SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS S OF 15N E OF 78W. THIS
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD PATCHES WHICH APPEAR THICKEST S OF HISPANIOLA. QUICK
MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATCH S OF
HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICE.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE TO 30 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO E FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE
FRONT AND RADAR IS ALSO INDICATING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 50W AND THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY AN
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. E OF THE RIDGE A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS
MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N37W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS ON
THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW FROM 34N33W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT TO
30N32W TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW
AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE W OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES
TO LIE IN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ALLOWING WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 5N16W
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN THE ITCZ.

$$
DGS



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