[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W TO 2S43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 11W-19W...FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
21W-26W...AND FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 30W-36W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 31N87W 23N90W 17N95W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF N OF FRONT.  20-25 KT SLY FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND
TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION PREDOMINATELY OVER S FLORIDA.  ALSO EXPECT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 12
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE FRESH TRADES.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 82W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND W CUBA IN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W TO 29N44W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 35W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO S FLORIDA
WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E AND BE ALONG 32N30W TO 27N32W.

$$
FORMOSA




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