[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W...INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 3N20W 1N30W...EQUATOR
AT 40W...1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

TEXAS...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH ARE MOVING FROM EASTERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...FROM
THE PANHANDLE TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A COLD
FRONT IS ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS FRONT PROBABLY WILL
BE ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ABOUT SUNSET
TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE
FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
ABOUT 180 NM WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MODELS MOVE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS WITHOUT IT CROSSING FLORIDA COMPLETELY. THE
72 HOUR FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN EAST-TO-WEST WARM FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT.
WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW WITH SATELLITE CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 65 KT TO 75 KT.
A JET STREAM ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N AND CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH 26N90W AND THEN WEAKENS
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
REACHING 60 KT ARE FOUND IN SATELLITE DRIFT WINDS REACHING 60 KT
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. THE WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
MORE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE WIND SPEED RANGE IS FROM 25 KT
TO 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS REACH 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
EAST OF 73W...FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W...SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 80W...AND NORTH OF 20N MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE AREA OF THE WATERS
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OFFSHORE EAST OF 76W IS CLOUD-FREE AT THIS
TIME. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF
70W. BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 27N58W TO 24N65W TO 23N73W AT THE EDGE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
MARIJUANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N45W 28N50W 27N62W 26N75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A 29N26W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N31W 15N46W.

$$
MT




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