[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W...
2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
S OF 2N TO THE S AMERICA COAST W OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 13W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N94W. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF N OF 29N AND THE ADJACENT COAST.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BELT OF WSW WINDS OF
75-90 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A 240 NM WIDE BAND OF
MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED ALONG TAMPA BAY-26N90W TO
THE NE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 25N97W. UPSTREAM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TO TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A 1027 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AT 21 UTC OVER THE SW GULF AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N95W TO THE MEXICAN COAST JUST E OF
COATZACOALCOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WERE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N95.5W. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WRN GULF ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED IN PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT. THE
FLOW WEAKENS TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN CUBA
TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED WESTWARD MOVING
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN A 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH. STRONG ELY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SW PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN WHERE NE WINDS ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
9 TO 14 FT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS NOTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TO ABOUT
55W N OF 20N. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 90-100 KNOTS ARE W OF 70W. THE STRONG WINDS WERE
ADVECTING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF ALINE THROUGH 32N69W TO THE E-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO
BEACH. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 32N49W
THROUGH 25N65W TO THE E COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN
63W AND 75W.

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 12 DEG IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N27W AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM AND MAY BE INCLUDED ON THE
SUBSEQUENT 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. IN ANY EVENT THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION THROUGH 21N30W
AND BECOMES SHEARED TO NEAR 13N47W. A NARROWING REGION OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEARED TROUGH AXIS S OF 18N. A 80 TO 100 KNOT JET ORIGINATES
FROM CLOSE TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 11N45W THROUGH 16N30W
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA/WESTERN SAHARA AT 24N.

$$
COBB




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