[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT...IT STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO
PANAMA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 8N22W 7N34W 10N42W TO 10N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND
17W...WITHIN A 15-30NM RADIUS OF 9N40W...AND FROM 2-3N BETWEEN
40W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE ELSE FROM 5N TO 10N EAST OF 37W...
AND SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CUT-OFF TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED MORE...LEAVING
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N99W IN MEXICO AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 101W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURVE IN A BAND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND
96W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 27N82W IN FLORIDA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THAT AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STILL IS OVER LAND. THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT ALSO IS JUST AT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE AREA FOR THIS BULLETIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-TO-
YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE FLOW
CROSSES 80W AND FEEDS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 10N77W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF 75W.
THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXTENDS
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA NEAR 9N/10N
ALONG 81W TO NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 14N ALONG 84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 84W. THE PRECIPITATION
FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...PROBABLY WITH SOME
EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 74W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS ALONG 79W/80W MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AT THIS TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THROUGH 35N78W IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO
32N79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N30W TO A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N59W...TO 28N70W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO 25N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N44W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N57W TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W...FINALLY
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH
AND COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR 23N31W...VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR IT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 29N BETWEEN 22W
AND 33W.

$$
MT


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