[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W
AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT...IT STRETCHES FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA/
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
JUST WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 8N20W 8N30W 7N40W TO 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 1W AND
4W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
8W AND 9W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 11N
BETWEEN 19W AND 32W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO APPEARS TO
HAVE BECOME SEPARATED OR CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NOW-SEPARATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 95W AND 98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
22N92W TO 27N87W BEYOND 30N84W AT THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
30N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W IN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC-TO-22N92W-
TO 27N87W RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE FLOW CROSSES
80W AND FEEDS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE...IS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AT THIS TIME. OTHER PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE IN THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG ALSO COVER NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND
COASTAL WATERS AT 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND IN NORTHERN
BELIZE AND MEXICO/GUATEMALA FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND
90W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH HAITI DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE DRAGGING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH IT
AT THIS TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N79W
BEYOND 32N75W. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN A TROUGH WHOSE
BASE IS NEAR 30N77W AND THAT PASSES BEYOND 33N76W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N37W
TO 28N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N25W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 27N41W TO 26N58W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N67W...
FINALLY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
13N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS DUE TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORMING/TRYING TO FORM NEAR 18N24W.

$$
MT


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