[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WRN VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS UNDER UPPER SWLY FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS
OVER WRN VENEZUELA AND NRN COLOMBIA.


...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N29W 9N32W 8N38W 7N40W
5N45W 7N54W AND INTO S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N18W TO 5N29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ALSO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 49W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE S TEXAS COAST
COVERING THE WESTERN GULF. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ADVECTING A DEEP
LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE REGION.
THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN OF THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
NOTE IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL GULF WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING S-SE 10-15 KT
RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
100 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. DIVERGENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE W ATLC N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N66W OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N52W
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ADVECTING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A VERY STABLE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
35N37W SW OF THE AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ALOFT...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


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