[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CENTERED AROUND 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 18N. THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT SUGGESTS THE WAVE POSITION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS N CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CONVECTION
IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 18N ACROSS SRN MEXICO. IT NOW
LIES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FOUND IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND ACROSS SRN MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS WAVE.


...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 11N28W 9N36W 6N39W
4N45W 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
4N41W TO 8N47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
NOTED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WRN GULF AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INDUCING SOUTHEASTERLY
GULF RETURN FLOW INTO THE TEXAS COAST. AS A RESULT...DEEP
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS HELPING
TO SUPPLY MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...
IN PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
N CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI WITHIN THE REGION OF
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW FOUND BETWEEN 86W AND 94W.
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29N DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS
GENERATING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OFF THE NRN VENEZUELA COAST
BETWEEN 62W-68W. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN N OF WRN PANAMA AND OFF THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA COAST
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL AND SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT
IS PROVIDING LIFT.

ATLANTIC...
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC...WITH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS FOUND NORTH AND WEST OF 10N30W AND FLOW GENERALLY
TURNING MORE N TO NE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOCATION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N TO
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS OFFSHORE OF NRN FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 13N52W EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD AND COVERS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N27W AND IS PROVIDING AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN




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