[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE OFF THE AMAPA AND
ILHA DE MARAJO...BRAZIL.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON THE WIND
SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY AT 24/1200 UTC TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT
25/1200 UTC FROM 700 MB TO 600 MB ON THE KINGSTON JAMAICA RAOB.
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH A REGION OF LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHOSE AXIS LIES APPROXIMATELY
250 MI/400 KM EAST OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 5N30W 6N50W 10N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 27W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
42W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 40W...NOT COUNTING THE
48W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR BETWEEN
93W AND 96W FROM MEXICO TO 24N. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST
OF 90W...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER LAND FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 28N83W 26N90W...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N74W
30N78W 28N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWESTWARD
BEYOND HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM HAITI TOWARD THE
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 10N76W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTED OUT IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA EARLIER TODAY. THOSE HAVE DISSIPATED AND OTHER STRONG
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER SMALLER SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE WATERS NEAR
17N86W NORTH OF HONDURAS. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALON THE LINE FROM
29N61W TO 22N66W TO HAITI...TO 16N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 10N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IN A LINE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N57W 11N63W 13N69W 14N71W 13N75W. THE
PRECIPITATION AT THE EASTERN END OF THIS LINE IS RELATED TO
THE ITCZ...AND MAYBE THE REST OF IT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
THE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 35W AND 52W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N26W
27N27W 19N41W. THE FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N56W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N81W...ALONG 30N TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK/MT


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