[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 34W S OF 10N. INITIAL
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DAKAR UPPER AIR
DATA INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE AXIS DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 33N-35N AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 25-30 KT.
CONVECTION AROUND THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. UPPER-AIR DATA FROM
BARBADOS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLAND LATE
SUN/EARLY MON MORNING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THU. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN THE
AXIS AND 56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W FROM
20N TO 6N IN THE E PACIFIC. BELIZE CITY UPPER AIR STATION SHOWS
THE EXPECTED E TO ESE WIND SHIFT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND
12Z TODAY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE TO ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 9N23W 4N33W 5N46W AND INTO
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-18W...AND FROM 20W-25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  W TO SW UPPER FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE IS PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF AND HELPING TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NORTH OF 28N WHERE A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE MAINLY EAST OF
VERACRUZ.  AT THE SFC...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.  THE
EAST PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N.  MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA COAST.  FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CAN BE FOUND
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR
32N49W.  DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NORTH
TROPICAL ATLC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON/SCHAUER CLARK







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