[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 80W-82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 5N27W 8N39W 5N48W 5N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF OF LINE FROM 8N50W TO 6N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE TEXAS
AND MEXICO COASTLINE TO NEAR 21N. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF INTO THE FAR W ATLC. THIS IS
GIVING MOST OF THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N FROM THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN AND IS PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N83W.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 81W WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE
SW TO CENTRAL PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO THE COAST OF W CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N-14W W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEING USHERED IN ON THESE TRADE WINDS MOSTLY E OF 67W.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 76W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
75W-78W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 32N21W ALONG
26N37W 23N58W CROSSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER PUERTO RICO/MONA
PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM
AFRICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N39W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 75W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE






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