[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION W
OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W FROM FAR ERN
CUBA TO NRN COLOMBIA MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL TURNING NEAR 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N23W 8N34W 7N38W 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 20W-26W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 36W...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 200
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE GULF.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN THE WRN GULF W OF 95W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE NRN GULF
WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF EAST
OF 95W. MOST INTENSE AREA OF TSTMS ACCORDING TO LIGHTNING DATA
IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 88W. INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO
MOBILE ALABAMA. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS STREAMING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IN SWLY FLOW AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
81W-83W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
WITH 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE W ATLC IS
PRODUCING THESE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS SRN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 78W-81W AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND GULF OF
MEXICO. A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER...REMNANT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE ATLC N OF 28N
BETWEEN 61W-66W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC
BASIN FROM AFRICA TO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
ANCHORED ON A QUASI-STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N46W. AN E-W ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO THE EAST AND THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


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