[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS A MOISTURE SURGE BETWEEN
27W-33W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225W NM OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS A
MOISTURE SURGE 72W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN THE WAVE
AND 75W AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 65W.
BETWEEN 67W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N22W 8N30W 5N36W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 10N-14N E OF 19W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
BETWEEN 35W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO COVERING THE
FAR W GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE N GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE E
GULF. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 95W AND N OF THE YUCATAN FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 85W-93W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N
GULF COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO S OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE/E HISPANIOLA
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE IS KEEPING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT JUST
OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPS INTO THE W ATLC N
OF 28N W OF BERMUDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT
ENTERING THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W SW TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NW OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 23N57W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE/E HISPANIOLA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW COVERING
THE AREA 21N-26N BETWEEN 55W-66W. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
RELATIVE DRY STABLE UPPER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-65W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N27W IS
KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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