[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W...AND FROM 15N TO
16N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 6N16W 8N24W 7N28W 3N40W 3N52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W WITH
THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 90W
WITH A TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
MEXICO...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON
TOP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 27N IN MEXICO IN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING
AND OROGRAPHY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 93W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
HAS MOVED FROM SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N64W 28N70W 25N77W IN
THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS...27N80W 29N81W AT THE FLORIDA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA WEST OF 75W WITH THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS-TO-WESTERN CUBA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE COSTA RICA COAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONNECTS ONE CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
21N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A SECOND CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 16N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 64W/65W TROPICAL WAVE
SOUTH OF 20N IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 59W AND 66W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N35W TO 27N45W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N29W TO 31N34W...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES FROM 31N34W TO 31N40W AND
BEYOND 32N42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE
CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N56W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO A SECOND CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 16N67W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N71W
BEYOND 33N56W.

$$
MT




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