[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 14N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES CYCLONIC
TURNING NEAR 8N-9N. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS A MOISTURE
SURGE BETWEEN 21W-26W. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL
AS ASCAT DATA SUPPORT THE AXIS POSITION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
25W-27W AND FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 19N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SFC PRESSURES
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE BEHIND THE WAVE AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N W OF 59W.
GUADALOUPE ISLAND REPORTED A 24 HR PRECIP TOTAL OF 1.65 INCHES.
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES A MOISTURE BULGE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 8N23W 5N30W 3N40W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
28W ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE AXIS IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN GULF.
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 26N E OF 92W. AT THE
SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR HONDURAS.
UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS BEING FUNNELED ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE HIGH IS KEEPING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY CLOUD
FREE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W.
AT THE SFC...A STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N70W...EXTENDING SW TO 30N75W THEN TURNING WNW TO
A LOW ON THE GEORGIA COAST. A BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY N OF
28N BETWEEN 65W-71W. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
33N46W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON
PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE RIDGE. AN E-W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON







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