[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W...ALREADY REACHING THE EXTREME
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...

11N15W 4N30W 3N40W..AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W...TO THE
BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 27W TO 3N35W...
4N42W...4N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W WITH
THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
NEAR 33N82W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W.
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N73W TO 29N79W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N79W TO 27N89W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...BEYOND 30N94W ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO IS ALONG 28N78W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N80W
27N75W BEYOND 32N69W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
27N93W TO 22N97W TO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
17N94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTH OF 20N...IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AND FROM WESTERN HONDURAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN
101W AND 108W IN WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND 108W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. THIS RIDGE IS SENDING UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE AREA
OF THE GULF OF URABA/COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W
SOUTH OF 19N. SHOWERS ALREADY ARE REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 14N TO 17N EAST OF 61W/62W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 30N34W TO 27N40W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
23N55W TO 18N58W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
REACHES 32N36W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 34N40W TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N20W TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N38W TO 26N63W TO 24N77W IN THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS.

$$
MT

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