[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N. THE
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU...AND
SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRI.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS NOW ALONG 96W OVER THE EPAC. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE
ON THE TWDEP...TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION EASTERN PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 6N40W INTO NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. FIRST AVAILABLE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROBABLY ALONG 20W/21W. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF A CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD BE ADDED ON THE 1200 UTC SFC MAP. IN ADDITION...THE
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM IS SHOWING THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE TWO DAYS AGO...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ALSO
REVEALS A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N WEST OF 45W TO THE
BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER N MEXICO COVERING THE FAR NW GULF
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE GULF MEXICO THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY NEAR 29N92W AND OVER TAMPA BAY.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING
TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA WHERE A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE
GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WERE
REPORTED YESTERDAY IN THIS AREA...AND MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE
COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ITS BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW OVER THE AREA AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST
OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH A NARROW
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 33N74W TO
OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE UPPER HIGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
BEYOND 32N56W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
29N37W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
GR/CW



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