[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 7N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN THAT WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS LESS DEFINED THIS EVENING AND THERE IS STILL NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT CONTINUES TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 21N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. WAVE IS AGAIN ILL-DEFINED THIS EVENING WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 10N24W 6N33W 7N49W 6N57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO
COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 94W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE SAME AREA LIMITING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
GULF TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO GULF TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM W CUBA COVERING THE SE GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO LOUISIANA AND OVER W CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH
A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W ANCHORED N
OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE N OF 16N BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CUBA. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE
N YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THUS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING.

ATLANTIC...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N75W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA W OF 75W
TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 23N70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE E FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 53W-65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
N OF THE REGION EXTENDING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N52W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF
20N FROM 20W-35W WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION. BROAD UPPER
E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N34W. DRY STABLE
AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING.

$$
WALLACE


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