[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH
A DISTINCT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 8N30W...BUT IT APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IN THE TROPICAL E ATLC IS
TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SWD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS BECOMING MORE ILL-DEFINED AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 9N30W 2N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE ERN US SEABOARD TO
THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER NRN MEXICO COVERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE
GULF WATERS AND NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF REGION FROM 26N-30N E OF 85W.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE...WITH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 26N90W
IS CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF W OF 85W
GIVING THE AREA MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. THE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W
DOMINATES THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 81W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS ALONG 70W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ENVELOPS THE E CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE ERN US SEABOARD AND
ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 66W-72W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO NEAR 20N74W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N44W 26N51W TO
25N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E
OF THE TROUGH AND N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICS S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N34W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 18N AND E OF
25W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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