[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 26W/27W ON THE 00Z MAP IS PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ALONG
22W/23W. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N...BUT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO PANAMA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...TPW...SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO OVER HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN
72W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 5N34W 6N43W 4N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 80-100 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND
WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA
AFFECTING SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF DURING
THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS WEAKENING. INSTEAD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS EXTENDED FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE SW PORTION OF THE
GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO
COVERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. WLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE SE TO S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BLOWING.
THIS WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND RUNS FROM 28N84W TO
25N85W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE PORTION
OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND OF SAN
ANDRES DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE REGION
THROUGH HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC ENVELOPS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TODAY...AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS ALSO
WEAKENING. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW NEAR 28N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME LOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 25N TO OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-76W. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING 27N. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED
AND NOW A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W TO 25N55W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 22N
FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED 30N30W. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 18N
AND E OF 25W.

$$
GR






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