[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 6N.
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W FROM CUBA TO
COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N TO OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN
73W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N23W 5N37W 3N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-20W AND FROM 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO
COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 92W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE SAME AREA LIMITING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
GULF TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA AND ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE US TO THE COAST OF THE NE GULF WITH A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N82W ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. THIS IS ENHANCING
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N
E OF 90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH
A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OF TO OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W
ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA
MOVING N TO ALONG THE N COAST W OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N78W. A CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM 29N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 23N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 50W-65W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION 32N44W SW
TO 26N54W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E AND S
OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS
S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER FEATURES AND A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 31N27W SW ALONG 24N43W S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH
THEN NW TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 31N69W. DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE E ATLC...THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net