[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 30W FROM 07N TO 19N AND
MOVING W AT 20 KT WITH THE WAVE AXIS DEPICTED ON ANIMATED
SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE S OF 13N BUT SEEM TO
BE DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W-72W FROM 08N TO 19N MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND A LARGE ARE OF
SCATTERED TSTMS WERE ENHANCED OVER NW COLOMBIA AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS NOTED OVER HAITI.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W TO 08N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND
25W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED AT 07N17W WITH MAY TURN OUT
TO THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 09N34W TO 04N48W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 02S
BETWEEN 33W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE IS 21N95W AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WSW WITH TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING AT
24N97W. AN OTHER UPPER RIDGE NOW EXTENDS E OFF THE TEXAS COAST
28N96W TO 28N90W. AN UPPER CYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS HAS ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
ALONG 30N85W TO 22N90W. DRY UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED W OF LINE FROM
29N93W TO 21N96W AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 23N AND 27N.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE
SPREADING S OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 90W. ANOTHER
MOISTURE SOURCE WAS CONVECTION ENHANCED LATE SAT OVER YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N90W.
SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS HAS A STATIONARY TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 18N75W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION TO FLARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...ROUGHLY IN THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 63W. THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTED NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE S OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.
DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 80W AND 70W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS STREAMING E ALONG
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 26N76W BUT CONTINUES TO
TRAIL AN QUASI STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. INTENSE CONVECTION FLARED OVER THE LARGER N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS LATE SAT. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS CONCENTRATED
IN A MOISTURE PLUME NOW DISSECTING THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N68W TO 23N50W THEN NARROWS TO WELL
BEYOND 32N40W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE
SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS
31N72W 26N55W 31N38W...WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N46W TO 26N60W TO
28N72W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS NOW DOMINATED A
BROAD E TO W RIDGE. UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED FROM 09N TO 23N
BETWEEN 26W AND 33W...AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BROKEN
TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 31N15W TO 22N30W BECOMING LOCALLY BROKEN OVER THE
TROPICS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

$$
NELSON


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