[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W FROM 7N TO 18N MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND
ONLY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. POSITION IS CONFIRMED WITH
LATEST ANIMATION OF THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW FROM CIMSS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW
VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 64W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 7N26W 7N31W 2N50W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF A LINE FROM 12N13W ACROSS INTERIOR W AFRICA TO NEAR 4N20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO
18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN INLAND
ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THIS FEATURE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE W ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
TROUGHING FROM THIS LOW AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FAR ERN GULF PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A
HIGH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE N GULF
COAST AS THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM N
FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE S-SW TO THE NW
GULF WATERS ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC AND
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 70W ENTERING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ERN COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS A RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W AND N CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTS...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BRING STRONG TO FRESH TRADES MON THROUGH WED OVER THE ERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN AND
CENTRAL ATLC AS SEVERAL BANDS OF CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED E OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS
THE SE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITHIN 200 NM E-SE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE BASE REACHING 26N. THE
ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED WITH A SECOND
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N47W 28N57W TO 28N70W. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY
A DECAYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N39W WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE WEST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
THE EAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net