[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 27W FROM 7N TO 19N MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT WITH THE GENERAL POSITION SUGGESTED IN LATEST
ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ONLY NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO WEST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT AXIS IS ALONG 68W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE
MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MENTIONED BELOW UNDER THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. AS A RESULT...AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH
OTHER CELLS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING WEST AT
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ILL DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED IN A SWATH OF
EASTERLIES. IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE 18Z MAP.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N25W 8N30W 4N42W 2N50W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EMERGED FROM AFRICA
THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...AWAITING NEW DATA FOR MORE EVIDENCE. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9N14W
TO 8N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF
NEAR 21N94W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SW WITH TIME. A SFC TROUGH...
REFLECTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF AND
RUNS FROM 22N95W TO 18N93W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS E OF THE
AREA JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS
EXPANDED W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH N TO NW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE E
GULF MAINLY E OF 86W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON HIGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. CONVECTION IS
FLARING OVER THE SW GULF DUE TO THE CLOSE LOW/SFC TROUGH THERE
AND OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM N
FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO
MODERATE SE WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 15N73W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A PAIR OF TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SEE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PARTS
OF PANAMA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
EPAC ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BRING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES MON THROUGH WED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N74W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE SE
BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS SEEN N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND ANOTHER
SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z SFC MAP FROM 22N60W TO
20N70W. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE REACHING 27N. THE ATTENDANT
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG 29N38W 27N55W AND 25N63W. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING MAINLY WEST OF
60W WHILE IS STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N48W 28N60W
TO 29N72W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A DECAYING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N40W WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE WEST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE
EAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
GR




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