[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 25W FROM 07N TO 18N AND
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT WITH THE GENERAL POSITION SUGGESTED IN
LATEST ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND 360 NM E OF THE WAVE
THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W-66W FROM 08N TO 19N MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS
AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER VENEZUELA WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 12N TO 19N WITH CONVECTION
ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS WAVE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS LATER TODAY
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN BE ANALYZED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W TO 06N35W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 07N27W TO 04N47W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO
02S BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N85W 24N92W INTO A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N94W. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT W WITH TIME AND IS CUTTING OFF FROM ITS
PARENT TROUGH TO THE N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA AT
13N87W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG POINTS 22N92W 26N88W 23N82W.
ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...BUT
ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS EXPANDED W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH NW
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E OF A LINE FROM
29N84W TO 23N80W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED W OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE E TEXAS COAST...ROUGHLY W OF LINE 29N93W TO
23N98W. DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO SHIFTING W ACROSS FLORIDA N OF
26.5N...AND MAY MOVE W OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EXTREME E
GULF LATER TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS COASTAL CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE
SPREADING S BETWEEN 83W AND 90W OVER THE AREA N OF 26N. ANOTHER
MOISTURE SOURCE IS DECAYING CONVECTION ENHANCED LATE FRI OVER
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N96W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM N FLORIDA SW THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING
S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 17N73W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N76W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N
CENTRAL PART. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N70W TO 19N80W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS
ARE MOIST SUPPLIED FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
VENEZUELA IS ADVECTED N ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N76W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DEBRIS
MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IS STREAMING SE
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS INTO AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM
18N66W TO 29N77W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS
31N67W 24N56W 31N33W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG 31N31W
27N40W 28N48W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG
31N52W TO 31N66W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A DECAYING TROUGH ALONG 32N06W TO
24N14W TO 26N22W WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE FORMING NEAR 30N22W
WIT A RIDGE SW TO 24N34W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST SW OF THIS SAME TROUGH ALONG 18N15W TO A SHARP
CREST AT 24N28W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND WITHIN
360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N19W TO 11N51W.

$$
NELSON




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