[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS S
OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE. ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OBSERVED EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SURFACE DATA... SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE
PRODUCTS AND E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOST
NOTABLY GUADELOUPE..ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ARUBA
ALONG 70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP WELL ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WHERE AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS OBSERVED IN
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 10N22W 8N27W 2N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 30W-38W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 1W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N94W. AS OF 2100
UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM
23N97W TO 18N95W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH ONLY
EXCEPTION ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IS IN PLACE N OF 25N AND W OF 95W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND IS AIDING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTLINES. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE SE CONUS ENVELOPS THE ERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHER PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF BOTH
WAVES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST
BETWEEN 72W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS DIPS S OVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS HELPING TO
INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N
BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

ATLANTIC...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W IS ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG
30N34W 27N45W 28N57W. A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS NEARLY E-W ALONG 31N BETWEEN 57W-71W
AND HAS A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE. IN THE TROPICS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 14N45W WITH THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net