[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 23W TO THE S OF 18N AND
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT AND POSITION SUGGESTED IN LATEST ANIMATION
OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. ONLY A FEW CELLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AT 09.5N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND E CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN
150 NM OF AXIS AT 15N BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY FOR
THE PAST 6 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W-68W AND EXTENDS AS FAR N AS PUERTO
RICO. THIS WAVE SEEMS TO BE LOSING IDENTITY WITHIN A LARGER AREA
OF INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 15.5N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W TO 01N31W TO 02N40W TO
01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N20W TO 04N35W AND FROM 02S TO 04N
BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
AREA AT 30N90W AND CONTINUING S INTO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N95W WHICH IN TURN IS DRIFTING W WITH
TIME.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N95W TO 26N90W. AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N89W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A CREST NEAR 30N88W. DRY
UPPER AIR IS NOTED W OF THE DESCRIBED TROUGH AND INTO THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CYCLONE...AND UNDER THE RIDGE...ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THU WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW
SPREADING N UNDER THE RIDGE...BASICALLY DOMINATING THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE GULF E OF 92W AND ACROSS SW FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD E TO W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE E OF 82W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM INTENSE TSTMS THAT FLARED EARLIER OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS NOW STREAMING E OVER
THE N CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED
FROM COLOMBIA TO PUERTO RICO AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER
THE S CENTRAL PORTION. AT THE LOW LEVELS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 75W WITH ONLY TRADE WIND
CUMULUS OBSERVED BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS ALONG THE WAVE AT 15N BUT DECREASING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N76W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. DEBRIS
MOISTURE...SOME ORIGINATING OVER FL ON THU AFTERNOON...IS NOTED
OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...ROUGHLY W OF LINE 20N66W
TO 30N76W. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL FLARING
WITHIN THIS LARGE MOISTURE AREA...MOSTLY WITHIN 90 NM OF 22N73W.
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF
A LONG WAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 70W AND 35W WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE
FILLING AS IT MOVES E NEAR 25N58W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT LIES ALONG 31N32W TO 27N46W THEN IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 28N55W TO 25N72W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
AREA AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA. THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A TROUGH
ALONG 32N03W TO 24N20W TO 20N34W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17N15W TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N42W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ
DISCUSSION ABOVE.

$$
NELSON






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