[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
SSMI-DERIVED TPW SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE PROTRUDING NORTHWARD
IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS MODEL 850 MB LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE LOW MAY BE
FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE UW-CIMMS TPW PRODUCT WHERE A
HIGH AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED AGAINST SURFACE
DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBS WITHIN THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 57W-61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN MEXICO
ALONG 92W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM
POSITION OF THE WAVE WITH SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SW
GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 5N30W 3N40W 4N52W. SURFACE
WIND DATA ACROSS W AFRICA SHOWS POSSIBLE WAVE IS E OF DAKAR
SENEGAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-17W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
23W-30W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SEE ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 84W-87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
95W-97W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO DRIFT S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE N FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE.
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 75W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION E OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS W OF 77W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 30N40W 29N50W
DISSIPATING TO 29N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
WITH AXIS FROM 32N23W TO 23N37W 22N58W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NE FLORIDA PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 60W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 12N40W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net