[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
49W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 22N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 82W-90W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 6N40W 11N55W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF
THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 19W-27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
30W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  RESIDUAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W...AND OVER NE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. EXPECT CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY
OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS
NOTED.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 82W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 32N31W TO
28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 35N21W TO 20N40W 20N60W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF
20N E OF 45W.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
E ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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