[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 3N45W 4N50W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N14W TO
2N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 36W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N33W TO 7N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N73W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER E TEXAS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE SE GULF AND ACROSS W CUBA S OF
23N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THIS IS DUE TO NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE BRINGING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO
THE W ATLC WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING A MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGHER WIND VALUES OF
15-20 KT LOCATED IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG COASTAL COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SIMILAR SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 80W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N73W. FURTHER
E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W TO 27N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLC NEAR 26N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BRINGING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N36W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
S OF 20N E OF 45W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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