[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE .
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 78W-86W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 71W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N50W 5N54W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
33W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 28N. 10-15 KT S WINDS
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N88W...AND OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AT 28N83W. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 26N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE YUCATAN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO NE FLORIDA INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 80W
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W.
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N34W TO 30N36W
27N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 8N32W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 45W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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