[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 13N44W 7N46W TO 2N46W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 41W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO BE WEST
OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER S MEXICO ALONG
95W/96W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N28W 7N43W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA
AFRICA WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO TEXAS ANCHORED IN THE
E PACIFIC REGION AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING
OVER TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 26N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW HAVE AGAIN FLARED UP OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
14N W OF 78W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 76W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW HAVE
AGAIN FLARED UP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME HEAT
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 31N W
OF 75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
30N W OF 77W WITH HEAVY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY W OF 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 31W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N35W SW TO 26N48W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 44W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W AND AS FAR N AS THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 8W/9W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N24W S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRONT TO 20N55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS ENJOYING FAIR
WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A
THIN LAYER OF DUST MOVING OFF W AFRICA TO NEAR 30W.

$$
WALLACE




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